Migration is a key agricultural tactic in and around Lake Chad (Okpara et al., 2015). Since approximately 1500BC nomadic herders and fishermen have moved in time with the lake level's variations (Gronenborg, 1995). The lake is a traditional convergence point for herders from across all of the riparian states (Onuoha, 2009) moving toward the lake in the dry season and away from the mosquitos in the wet season. In periods of significant flux there has been a tendency for armed conflict to arise between farmers who depend on the lake for their livelihoods (Tar & Mustapha, 2017).
We have seen already how the Lake has declined dramatically since the 1960s, and how traditional forms of agriculture in the basin have been made much harder by large scale irrigation infrastructure. Migration in the basin since the 1960s has thus been relatively high. Between 1980 and 1990, for example, around 90,000 Nigerian migrated into Cameroon to access more fertile land for rearing animals (Hall, 2009). Significant droughts in the 1970s and 1980s caused the northern lake area to effectively disappear (Goe & Foley, 2001), resulting in a net southward migration of fisherman and some farmers from areas in Niger and northern Chad to Nigeria, Cameroon and southern Chad, whilst the damning of major tributaries has meant many farmers have had to move closer to the water, or give up farming entirely. Those who did give it up moved into urban areas to find work. The shrinking lake increased instances of localised conflict as competition over resources has heightened (Locchi, 2020). Okpara et al. (2015) suggest that the shrinking of the lake had the duel effect of increasing agricultural migration but also reducing inland transport, cutting off trade links and slowing down economic growth.
This analysis in some ways supports the view of Lake Chad as the 'tragedy of the commons' that we discussed in the last post - that overuse of the lake's declining resources has led to intensifying conflict over resources.
What is interesting, and rather ironic, is that actually the basin has historically been less able to support the production of food and sustain livelihoods at times when the lake is larger (Gronenborg, 1995). Indeed, the current lake size has historically been able to support the largest populations.
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